問9
頻出度★★★
企業の戦略立案やマーケティングなどで使用されるフェルミ推定に関する記述として，最も適切なものはどれか。
令和6年度 ITパスポート試験 問9
ストラテジ系企業活動 › 業務分析・データ利活用
This question's explanation and your answers so far.
解説
問 9
- ア
正解 Fermi estimation is a method for deriving an approximate number (a rough figure) for a quantity that is extremely difficult to count precisely even through a field survey (for example, the number of piano tuners in Japan), by building up logical, step-by-step reasoning on top of the clues and information one already has. Choice ア states exactly this definition, namely obtaining an approximate value for a quantity that is difficult to calculate precisely by using the information at hand and a logical thinking process, so it is the most appropriate.
Incorrectイ
Participating in activities together with a specific group or observing how people move in order to infer customs, preferences, and culture is the description of ethnography (a method of understanding a group's culture through participant observation and fieldwork). Both its purpose and its method differ from Fermi estimation, which logically approximates a quantity.
Incorrectウ
Statistically estimating the causal relationship between input data and output data is the description of regression analysis. It is statistical processing of existing data, a method distinct from Fermi estimation, which logically approximates a quantity from clues.
Incorrectエ
Repeatedly conducting the same questionnaire on a group of experts and feeding back the results to reach a consensus on future predictions is the description of the Delphi method. It is a forecasting method based on aggregating experts' opinions, and differs from Fermi estimation.
ここがポイント
- Fermi estimation = a method for obtaining a rough figure for a quantity that is hard to calculate precisely, by using the information at hand and a logical thinking process.
- Distinguishing the confusable methods: ethnography (inferring culture through participant observation and fieldwork) / regression analysis (statistically estimating causation from data) / the Delphi method (forming a forecast consensus through repeated expert questionnaires).
用語