Learn in the textbookManagement of Technology (MOT), Intellectual Property Strategy, and the Two Basic Types of Innovation
DefinitionTechnology forecasting methods (技術予測手法) is a general term for ways to anticipate technical progress and changes in the business environment, and it forms the basis for technology development strategy.
ExplanationA typical method is the Delphi method (デルファイ法), which sends questionnaires to experts repeatedly and gradually converges their opinions. A chart that shows the forecast as the path technologies and product functions follow along a horizontal time axis is called a technology roadmap (技術ロードマップ).
AnalogyIt is like checking the weather forecast and expected traffic before a trip, then choosing when to leave and which route to take.
Memory hookDelphi was an ancient Greek site famous for its oracle. The name of a place where people sought the future lives on in a forecasting method.